Health chiefs preparing for flu pandemic that could kill 12,000 in county alone

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Monday, April 06, 2009
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This is Derbyshire

DEEP inside a warehouse, the contents of a collection of plain cardboard boxes could mean the difference between life and death.

In the event of a global flu crisis, NHS staff will be in desperate need of the hundreds of protective masks and gowns stockpiled in the Coalville store.

This store is just one of many measures to tackle a possible outbreak.

For the first time, health bosses across the country are planning for a pandemic, following a call from the Government.

They believe a pandemic could happen in one of two ways.

A deadly new version of the flu virus may spread across the globe, as happened three times in the 20th century, including the devastating 1918 outbreak.

Unlike the flu strains that we face each winter, this would be a much stronger virus which would be lethal to more people, including the fit and healthy.

A pandemic could also happen if the bird flu virus, usually fatal to humans, develops the ability to more easily pass from person to person. At the moment, it is normally caught by close contact with birds.

In either case, there would be no vaccine that would protect people against catching flu. There are anti-viral drugs that can reduce symptoms.

It is with this in mind that health bosses across Derbyshire have prepared documents detailing the role of the local NHS in the face of such an event.

They are preparing for a "worst-case" scenario in which up to half of the population would be infected, with as many as 12,000 dying in Derbyshire – 2.5 per cent of the infected population.

They hope this will help limit the number of deaths.

Mike Sandys, of NHS Derby City, said the trust's plan were approved by its board last week.

He said: "If there was a pandemic, anti-viral drugs would be given to everybody because there is evidence that, if you go down with flu, they speed up recovery.

"People with symptoms would be encouraged to call a national flu helpline where call centre staff, backed up by medical staff, would speak to them about their condition.

"There would be so many people falling ill that GPs would be swamped if everybody visited them – so GPs would only deal with people who develop complications or have pre-existing medical conditions."

The trust would give public health information through the local media and encourage people to find a "flu friend", who would be able to collect their drugs if they fell ill.

Businesses would be warned to prepare for up to half of their staff contracting the virus within a typical 15-week pandemic, with up to 20% off sick at any time.

And that level of absenteeism could be even higher among healthcare staff.

Mr Sandys said: "The impact on the NHS could be somewhat more because it employs primarily women, who would often be the ones to look after children if they get the flu."

At Derby's hospitals, non-essential services such as the skin and sexual health clinics would be closed.

Routine but essential surgery would continue with the help of private hospitals, who have agreed to share the workload.

This would allow the hospitals to focus their efforts on the pandemic and free up more staff.

Those who do not normally deal with seriously-ill patients, such as day-surgery nurses, would be trained to work on wards.

Jo Cooper, assistant director of nursing, said: "We could train people now but if nothing happens for five years, they will forget what they've learned and we would have wasted a lot of time."

Hospital beds would be given to the most seriously-ill patients, with others transferred to nursing and residential homes, community hospitals or their own homes whenever possible.

Those with flu would be kept together and away from people not infected by the virus, to limit the risk of it spreading.

But Mr Sandys said that despite the severity of the pandemic, the public should be reassured that the NHS was ready.

He said: "The World Health Organisations says the UK is better prepared for a pandemic than anywhere else in the world."

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