History shows there could still be plenty of ups and downs to come

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Tuesday, November 11, 2008
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This is Derbyshire

A THIRD of the Championship campaign has been completed but can anything be read into the story so far?

There appears to be some firm pointers at the top and bottom after 16 matches.

Wolves lead the way by six points from Birmingham City, followed by Reading. All three look a solid bet to finish in the top six with two looking likely to fill the automatic promotion places even at this early stage.

Rams boss Paul Jewell feels Reading are the best team he has seen in the division and has tipped them to go straight back up following relegation in May. The Royals certainly looked strong as they swept the Rams aside on Saturday to maintain their unbeaten home record.

Birmingham, who came down with Reading and Derby, are one of the favourites for promotion and Mick McCarthy has continued the good work of last season at Wolves.

At the bottom, newly-promoted Doncaster Rovers are finding life tough. They are seven points adrift of safety and Nottingham Forest are also struggling to climb out of the drop zone.

But the evidence of the past two seasons suggests conclusions drawn now could be premature.

Two seasons ago, 2006-7, Cardiff sat top at this stage on 33 points followed by Preston (32), Burnley (31), Birmingham (30), West Bromwich Albion (26) and Wolves (26).

Only Birmingham won promotion. West Brom and Wolves made the play-offs, Preston finished seventh while Cardiff slumped to 13th and Burnley 15th.

Sunderland, who went up as champions, were not even in the picture after 16 games.

They were down in 17th on 19 points but collected 69 points from the next 30 matches to win the league by two points from Birmingham.

Derby, who went up by beating West Brom in the play-off final, had 25 points and sat eighth. They broke into the top two for the first time in December, topped the table in January and eventually finished third.

Southend United, Leeds Unitedand Luton Town went down but there was little sign of the trouble ahead when Luton occupied a mid-table position with 22 points after 16 games. Their downward spiral now sees them propping up the Football League on a minus points tally and seemingly heading into non-League.

Last season, 2007-8, also showed how fortunes can change as the 46-match Championship marathon unfolds.

Watford led the way after 16 games with an eight-point cushion between themselves on 36 and Charlton. West Brom (27), Bristol City (27), Wolves (26) and Ipswich (25) made up the top six.

Like the previous season, only one of the six won promotion – West Brom who went on to lift the title.

Bristol City and Watford held onto play-off places but Charlton, Wolves and Ipswich dropped out of the frame.

What of Stoke and Hull who finished second and third?

Stoke were ninth on 23 points and Hull, who eventually tasted play-off glory, sat 11th with 22 points.

Those currently filling the bottom three places can take heart from the fact Norwich City, Crystal Palace and QPR occupied the positions at this stage 12 months ago but escaped, Palace actually made the play-offs.

The main body of the Championship is tight with six points separating eighth-placed Ipswich and Barnsley in 18th, and the next stage of the season, the middle third, will give the table a more obvious and telling shape.

Reading boss Steve Coppell, who always seems to talk sense, summed it up in his programme notes for the game against the Rams.

"The foundation blocks have now been built for the season," he said, "but I always say that the middle third is the meat in the sandwich.

"The strength and depth of squads are tested as injuries and suspensions start to kick in, with a lack of ability to bring in replacements until January, and a deterioration of the weather and the quality of pitches.

"Those factors combine to ensure that by the end of the Christmas period, everyone will be a lot clearer as to the roles that we are all destined to play."

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